1. Continued market expansion with strong growth momentum

The size of the U.S. cross-border e-commerce market is expected to maintain an annual growth rate of **8%-10%** in 2025, with e-commerce sales accounting for more than 20% of total retail sales, and the share of mobile shopping exceeding 50%.23 Gen Z has become a core consumer group, contributing nearly 90% of new online users, with a preference for social shopping, personalized experiences, and cost-effective goods, driving TikTok Shop, Temu and other emerging platforms to rise rapidly (Temu's transaction volume is expected to reach $60 billion in 2024, with a growth rate of 233%)

2. Competitive landscape: traditional giants and emerging platforms wrestle

Amazon: with supply chain integration and Prime membership system, its market share is expected to exceed 40.9%, especially in the field of “same day delivery” and other time-sensitive services.

Emerging forces: Temu and TikTok Shop have seized the market through the “social + e-commerce” model, attracting young consumers with low-priced strategies and short-video marketing, forcing traditional platforms to reduce commissions and optimize logistics efficiency.

Challenge of localization: Merchants need to refine their operations, such as matching North American consumers' needs for environmentally friendly packaging and high-quality after-sales service, and increasing conversion rates through localized content marketing.

3. Technology-driven and operational innovation

AI and big data: applied to product optimization, advertising and user profile analysis, such as Amazon's “gradient inventory” management system to help sellers reduce the risk of slow-moving products.

Deepening of social e-commerce: TikTok Shop converts short-video traffic into orders through live streaming and Netflix marketing, which is expected to contribute 35% of the incremental volume of U.S. social e-commerce in 2025.

Logistics upgrading: the layout of overseas warehouses is accelerating, and companies are shortening the timeframe through “front warehouses + local delivery”, but they need to cope with fluctuations in airfreight prices and rising compliance costs78. 4.

4. Policy and Compliance Risks

Tariff and tax exemption policies: The US may further tighten its tax exemption policy for small parcels under USD800, and the EU will adjust its tax rules for low-value goods, so merchants need to lay out their compliance declarations and tax optimization in advance.

Supply Chain Diversification: In order to cope with geopolitical risks (e.g. potential tariff hikes), headline companies are speeding up the establishment of alternate supply chains in Southeast Asia to reduce their reliance on a single origin in China.

5. Merchants' response strategy: the key to seize the first opportunity

Focus on “overseas exclusive” categories: such as large household items, outdoor equipment, etc., to avoid domestic red sea competition and take advantage of supply chain differentiation.

Multi-channel layout: in addition to Amazon, simultaneously expand Temu, TikTok Shop and other emerging channels to take advantage of its traffic dividend to achieve incremental breakthroughs.

Brand premium positioning: avoid getting caught in low-priced involution, create a mid-to-high-end image through technological innovation (e.g., smart home appliances, environmentally friendly materials) and brand storytelling to enhance profitability

Outlook: The U.S. cross-border e-commerce market will remain vibrant in 2025, but competition will intensify alongside compliance pressures. Merchants will need to focus on “agility,” combining data-driven, localized operations and technological innovation to capitalize on growth opportunities amid the changes.